Events Predictions
The Open Prediction Market
Built on Bitcoin Cash using CashTokens and CashConnect, BCH Guru is pioneering a unique, truly peer-to-peer prediction market. No centralised order books or matching engines. Users create their own offers and set their own odds based on what they believe event outcomes will be, matching directly with each other - all secured by on-chain smart contracts on L1 mainchain. This peer-to-peer exchange model is unlike anything else in crypto prediction markets.
What will also make Guru unique is its open oracle model. Instead of relying on a centralised team to create and resolve events, the target design is an open system where holders of a Guru NFT collection will be able to become oracle operators by committing NFTs from their collection. Oracles will create events, resolve outcomes honestly, and receive the 1% oracle fee, building a reputation-driven role on Bitcoin Cash. This system is under active development; during alpha, events remain team-managed.
A Proven Exchange Model, On-Chain
The peer-to-peer exchange model is one of the most successful in prediction market history - one user creates an offer at their chosen odds, another takes the other side. No bookmaker in the middle. This model has processed billions in volume across global markets for over two decades because it's simple, transparent, and fair.
BCH Guru brings this battle-tested exchange model on-chain for the first time - fully non-custodial on Bitcoin Cash. No centralised operator matching orders behind closed doors. No platform holding your funds. No illusions of free trading hiding slippage, hidden spreads, or unfavourable fills. Just direct peer-to-peer offers, transparent fees, and your keys controlling your funds at all times.
How It Works
Oracle Creates Event
Anyone with staked Guru NFTs can create a prediction event on any topic - sports, elections, crypto prices, anything. They set the outcomes and stake their reputation.
Party A Sets the Odds
A participant picks their predicted outcome, sets their offer and preferred odds, and commits their funds to an on-chain smart contract. Their funds stay locked in the contract - not on a platform.
Party B Takes the Other Side
Another participant sees the offer, likes the odds, and takes the opposing position. Their funds also lock into the same smart contract. The prediction is now matched.
Event Happens, Oracle Resolves
When the real-world event concludes, the oracle resolves the outcome on-chain. Their committed NFTs and reputation are on the line - bad-faith resolution results in loss of committed NFTs.
Payout Distributes, Contract Closes
The smart contract automatically distributes the payout to the side holding the correct prediction. Fees flow to the oracle, the ecosystem fund, and Guru NFT holders. Contract resolves cleanly - nothing left on-chain.
Why Guru Changes Everything
Battle-Tested Peer-to-Peer Model
One party sets the odds, another takes the other side. The same exchange model trusted by the world's largest prediction markets, now on-chain on Bitcoin Cash.
Any Event, Anywhere on Earth
Premier League to local pub trivia, SpaceX launches to Eurovision. Anyone can create and run an event. The world decides what's worth predicting on.
Non-Custodial - Your Keys, Your Funds
Funds stay under your control until matched, then held in an on-chain smart contract. No platform deposits, no bridges - always on L1 mainchain.
NFT-Committed Oracles
Commit Guru NFTs to run events and receive the 1% oracle fee for honest resolution. Reputation builds over time with a consistent track record. Bad-faith resolution results in loss of committed NFTs.
Permissionless by Design
Built on Bitcoin Cash - open, borderless, and accessible to anyone with an internet connection.
Choose Your Token - $FURU or $BCH
Participate with $FURU at 1% fees, with $BCH participation coming later. Every fee funds oracles, development, and Guru Rewards for NFT holders. No stablecoin lock-in.
Alpha Notice
Events predictions are in alpha. Events are currently team-managed. The open oracle system below is the target design, under active development.
The Open Oracle
Anyone will be able to run events. Anyone will be able to participate as an oracle.
Most prediction platforms rely on centralised oracle systems. BCH Guru flips this on its head. Anyone can become an oracle operator by staking Guru NFTs. Create events, resolve them honestly, and receive the 1% oracle fee for the service.
The trust model has three pillars: Reputation - oracles build credibility through honest resolutions, with limits on new oracles to prevent bad actors. Commitment - NFTs must be staked for each event, putting real assets at risk. The number of NFTs staked will play an important role, with full details to follow. Reward - a 1% fee on matched volume incentivizes honest operation. The more trust earned, the more volume attracted, the more income generated.
This means there is no limit to what can be a market. Other platforms only list events their team approves. Guru lets the world decide.
How does the BCH Guru Oracle compare to Polymarket's UMA Oracle?
BCH Guru Oracle
- Anyone can become an oracle operator
- Commit Guru NFTs as collateral for honest resolution
- Receive 1% oracle fee for honest resolution
- Reputation built on track record, not gatekeeping
- Wide range of event types with decentralised curation through staking tiers
- Fee-based incentive aligned with honest resolution
Polymarket (UMA Oracle)
- Relies on UMA token-holder votes
- Platform team approves which events get listed
- Oracle operators don't earn per-event fees
- Limited to events Polymarket chooses to list
- Centralised gatekeeping on market creation
Fee Structure: Transparent & Fair
What are the fees? Choose the token that fits your style!
BCH Guru
$FURU / Native Token, Lower Fees
$BCH / For Layer 1 Bitcoin Cash Users
The Guru Rewards fee flows to Guru NFT holders.
Polymarket
USDC on Polygon / Only Option
"Zero fees" is marketing, not reality. Wide spreads, slippage on thin markets, and large participants moving prices against smaller ones mean users routinely lose more than they expect per position. Subsidised fee models are not guaranteed to last.
The Full Breakdown
| Feature | BCH Guru | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|
| Trading Model |
✓ Peer-to-Peer Offers Set odds, commit liquidity, someone takes the other side. The exchange model trusted by some of the biggest peer-to-peer markets on earth. |
✗ Centralised order book with off-chain matching engine operated by Polymarket. |
| Custody |
✓ Non-Custodial Your BCH / FURU stays in your wallet or locked in smart contracts with clearly defined rules. No deposits. No platform holding your funds. |
✗ Funds held in Polygon smart contracts. Requires USDC bridging from Ethereum. |
| Trading Tokens |
✓ $FURU or $BCH Your choice. Participate with FURU at 1% fees, or with native BCH at 3% if you prefer the base-layer token. |
✗ USDC only. Stablecoin on Polygon. No choice, no native token option. |
| Fees |
✓ 1% – 3% (transparent) Every % has a role to support the ecosystem. |
✗ Advertised as 0%, but real cost is 2-5%+ through spreads, slippage, and large participants moving prices. Subsidised fee model with no clear long-term path. |
| Event Creation |
✓ Permissionless Anyone can commit Guru NFTs and create any event. No approval needed. |
✗ Polymarket team decides what markets exist. Curated, centralised listing. |
| Oracle System |
✓ Open NFT-Staked Oracles Run events, receive 1% oracle fee, build reputation. Committed NFTs ensure honesty. |
UMA Optimistic Oracle. Small group of UMA token voters. Users can't participate in resolution. |
| Void / Cancellation Handling |
✓ Full Refund If an event is voided, cancelled, or cannot be resolved, the smart contract returns all committed funds to participants in full. Every participant receives their original committed amount back, regardless of which side of the contract they took. |
✗ Forced 50/50 Payout When a market is cancelled, postponed, or unresolvable, the UMA oracle resolves it to $0.50 per share. Both YES and NO outcome tokens pay out at 50 cents each, regardless of position. Participants who entered at any price other than $0.50 realise a gain or loss based purely on entry price, not the actual event. Original capital is not returned proportionally. |
| Blockchain |
✓ Bitcoin Cash (L1) Main-chain security. Lower network fees. No bridges, no L2 fragility. |
Polygon PoS. An Ethereum sidechain with weaker security guarantees and bridge risk. |
| Access |
✓ Permissionless Open and accessible to anyone, anywhere. |
✗ Potential for geo-restrictions. |
| User Experience |
✓ Simple & Direct See an offer, take it. Know your risk and payout before you click. |
Trade outcome tokens as prices fluctuate. Requires understanding of market mechanics. |
| Revenue Model |
✓ Self-Sustaining Fees fund oracles, development, and NFT holder rewards from day one. |
✗ No disclosed revenue model. Long-term sustainability is unclear. |
| On-Chain Footprint |
✓ Clean Smart contract resolves, funds pay out, done. Nothing left behind on-chain. |
✗ Outcome tokens litter the chain indefinitely. Every market creates new token contracts that persist forever, even after resolution. |
The World's Prediction Market Should Belong to The World
No gatekeepers. Permissionless. Just people, predictions, and Bitcoin Cash.
Bitcoin Cash also offers strong privacy potential through its UTXO model and technologies like CashFusion, allowing participants to share their predictions without exposing their identity.
